Sample Models

Model 4.9: ANP BOCR - The 2013 United States National Debt Problem

Short Description

In October 2013, the U.S. Congress is debating on the best decision to make in regards to how to fund the national budget. Limit for the amount the government can borrow ($16.4 trillion) has been reached in December 2012, and lack of reform over the last year forced the Treasury to resort to extraordinary measures, which are due to be exhausted by the end of the month. It is unclear what would be the result of the current discussion between lawmakers and government. This model measures the likelihood of the most frequently debated alternatives in the short term:

1. Default; 2. Congress agrees to increase debt ceiling; 3. Congress agrees in reducing costs; 4. The Presidents takes a unilateral decision based on the 14th amendment.

The model was built, considering the most relevant and most frequently referred sources of information: we considered the necessary strategic and control criteria, then both factors and actors were added into the model and pairwise comparisons were made. Using our judgment we synthesized that the most likely outcome of the current negations would be that Congress would pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling in the short term.

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